Not all Summit County Population Forecasts Agree and We Need to Consider That When Making Plans
If you follow the Wasatch Mountain Accord, read about local government meetings, or listen to the radio you probably know that the population of Summit County is estimated to grow by over 143% to 88,000 residents by 2050. Just this morning KPCW’s Leslie Thatcher mentioned it again during an interview with Dave Ure. This 143% number is important because it forms the basis for all sort of regional planning like economic development, transportation management, water management, etc. It has become the defacto statistic relied on by many to make decisions.
Yet, not everyone agrees with that forecast. Since it is so heavily used, it’s important to understand where the number comes from, what it’s based on, and what opposing models show.
In 2012 the Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB) released reports forecasting population growth through 2050. It shows huge growth for the state overall and Summit County as well. Here are the overall projections:
It makes sense for this report to be used officially, since it came from the Governor’s Office. It also makes sense why people would want to use this report because it justifies growth, development, and spending…which everyone from planners, to builders, to developers like. If huge growth is coming, then something must be done (i.e. planned or built) to solve it.
Yet, The Utah Foundation, an independent public group, and who’s contributors include Rio Tinto, Love Communications, George S. and Dolores Eccles Foundation, Westminster College, and IHC among others indicate that this isn’t the only forecast. They state, “There are various entities that produce population projections – universities, private firms, metropolitan planning organizations, and governments to name a few. The process each firm uses to create projections is unique to the firm. However, the economic climate is a major variable in all of the analyses. Job growth is a leading cause of in-migration and to retain population in Utah and will in turn have an impact on overall population growth.”
With that in mind, let’s look at two different forecasts, the GOMB model and the Regional Economic Models Inc (REMI) model. GOMB predicts by 2040 Utah will have an additional 2 million people. REMI appears to predict an increase of 1.3 million people. In fact, GOMB’s estimates are the highest of any of the models in a recent Utah Foundation report:.
While many would argue that 1.3 million is still significant growth, and it is, it is 35% lower growth than the GOMB estimate. This would indicate Summit County’s population would be at about 69,000 instead of near 90,000 in 2050.
The other different between the two models is the GOMB model shows almost straight-line growth of population based on new births and net migration of people into the state. However, REMI shows a net migration out of the state between 2020 and 2040 (and then a net migration back in after that). In many ways, having a net outflow at some point seems more realistic than constant growth to the moon, as represented in the GOMB analysis.
It is important to know the source of our numbers when making crucial decisions that impact the citizens of Park City and Summit County. While it is likely growth will continue, we should first agree,that we agree, on the baseline assumptions that drive everything else.
The Governor’s numbers are “official” but they are also the highest of any forecast. They have been based on huge net migration and economic growth that has occurred since the Olympics in 2002. They forecast that this will continue unabated. Just like home prices in 2007, this may not be the case.
Note: Unless otherwise specified all graphs used in this post can be found in Utah Foundation report mentioned above.
Transportation Whiteboards and Spreadsheet of Vote Count
Summit County and Park City held a transportation meeting on Tuesday where the public offered input on various concepts to help reduce transportation issues. The public was able to vote on which issues they agreed with (green dots) or disagreed with (red dots). If anyone is interested in what the original whiteboards look like and/or a spreadsheet of the transportation counts, see below..
Click here for vote tally spreadsheet:Vote Tally for Summit Transportation Concepts
Below are the whiteboards:
in Schools
School District Discussion on Budget and Future
We have been as hard on the Park City School District related to financial matters. They are in a very complex spot that is going to require some out of the box thinking. However, the budget discussion below shows promise. They discuss everything from the impact of Vail, to second homes, to student numbers.
If you are interested in the financial situation of the district, skip to 43:07 in the video for the beginning of an hour long discussion related to the budget:
in Election
We saw Congressman Rob Bishop Was in Town and Decided to Check Out his Voting Record
The Park Record told us that Congressman Rob Bishop had come to town and talked ISIL, the military, and other topics. We really didn’t know how he voted on various topics so we looked into it further and Open Congress provided us all the information we needed. He votes with his party 95% of the time and abstains the other 5%.
Does any group (i.e. Democrats or Republicans) get it 100% right? And when they don’t is it better to tell people what you think or just abstain?
The problem is that if someone votes with the party ALL THE TIME, anyone could do that. You could do it. I could do it. Frankly, my friend Jason’s border collie could press the button with the treat next to it every time.
It’s embarrassing for not only Bishop but for Utah.
Note: Our disgust for how Rob Bishop votes doesn’t mean we endorse Donna McAleer. We don’t endorse. That’s so 1968. Every Summit County resident should vote how they wish but also understand they deserve the government they get.
How Our Community Voted on Various Transportation Ideas During the Basin Transportation Meeting
During last night’s Snyderville Basin Transportation meeting, the organizers placed whiteboards with various concepts designed to better understand how the public feels about potential solutions to Basin traffic problems. Each of the 120+ attendees had the chance to put a green sticker next to a concept they agreed with or a red sticker next to ones they disagreed with.
This is important because our elected officials and city/county employees will use this information to prioritize which transportation solutions should be pursued.
[table “” not found /]Note: We created this list from counting stickers. There were a lot of stickers and we did our best. However, all results may not be exact.
Summit County Transportation Meeting – Live Blog
We live-blogged the Summit County Transportation Planning meeting. This meeting was designed to provide an overview of transportation challenges in the area and ask the public for input. Please forgive spelling and grammar errors; the meeting moved pretty fast.
Read more for the play-by-play.
(more…)
in Schools
If you build it, they will come… another way for the Park City School District to go broke
During today’s Local News Hour with Leslie Thatcher on KPCW, School Board President Moe Hickey brought up the need for an additional elementary school.
If at some point you look at our growth patterns right now and say Trailside is at capacity, Parleys is at capacity, Jeremy is getting close to capacity. Right now we can handle what we have, but and this is where it gets tricky with an elementary school. If you start seeing more and more students come in, which we’ve seen the last two years…when do you start constructing an elementary school?
-Moe Hickey, Park City School Board President
Mr Hickey has a good point. If Park City Schools were in an ordinary situation and this was a perfect world, an estimate about future growth would be performed, and if additional capacity was needed, schools would be constructed. However, the current situation in Park City is not normal.
Just a few short weeks ago The Park City School District voted to raise property taxes due to a shortfall in funds. The increase was partially attributed to students from other districts coming to Park City. It was stated during those meetings that our schools have to take students as long as there is capacity. It was also stated that our school district only receives about $3,000 from the state for each out of district student, while it costs over $10,0000 per year to educate them. So it costs tax payers $7,000 extra for every student who doesn’t even live here, who attends our schools, and most importantly pays no property tax.
So as we approach capacity in our elementary schools, do we celebrate that as a way to stop the bleeding and the continual tax increases to cover out of district students? No, we start planning how to increase capacity so we can take more out of districts students, lose even more money, and cause property taxes to rise further.
The implications of this are huge for everyone. For residents, it likely means higher property taxes. For teachers, it likely means that raises will be less during the next negotiations. For the school district, they edge every closer to the maximum amount they will be able to tax and get ever closer to that cliff.
It’s almost as if the whole long term financial situation isn’t even being considered. While out of district students are only one component of the current problem, it is significant. Increasing capacity through another school will only exacerbate it. It’s frankly baffling.
More Info On Skiing Industry Since 2010
Yesterday we took a look at visitor nights in Park City. It showed that since 2010, visitor nights were down in December, February, March, and April.
Today, we look at skier days in Park City since 2010.
Again, skier days are down about 4.5% since 2010. We are not exactly sure how this jibes with what we’ve heard from local resorts such as Deer Valley where we believe we heard that 2013 ranked as one of their best years ever.
Perhaps if the moisture keeps up and turns to a big snow year, we can turn this trend around.
in Economy
Is Park City’s Ski Industry Slowing Down?
We know what you are thinking. Vail is coming into Park City and that means ski growth is going through the roof. They don’t make stupid investments! Remember, though, Vail is really a development company that runs some mountains. So, when we looked at this chart of Park City visitor nights by month (2010-present), it was a little bit shocking.
Sundance Up. Check!
Summer Up. Check!
Winter… Flat to Down. UHHH?
There are other ways of looking at how the ski industry is doing and they may tell another story; however, seeing that December, February, March, and April hotel nights are down from 2010 (the peak of the Great Recession) gives us pause.
in Development, Vail
Will Woodward Park City Find a Home at the Gorgoza Sledding Park?
We heard interesting speculation over the weekend. Someone asked what POWDR Corp was planning on doing with the Gorgoza sledding hill since it wasn’t part of the PCMR sale to Vail. Another person mentioned “wouldn’t that make a good home for Woodward Park City?”
Woodward Park City is the facility they were going to put at the base of PCMR that would be an action sports training center and camp for snowboarding, skiing, skateboarding, BMX, etc. With Vail’s purchase it needs to find a new home.
Gorgoza makes sense on many levels. While the sledding operation seems to be busy and probably brings in a good chunk of money, this could be a lot bigger. Would it replace the sledding hill? Likely. Unless by some sheer chance they could find someone willing to sell them land adjacent to the sledding hill. Where could they ever find that? Oh yeah, the so-far-failed Discovery Core project that sits behind Weilenmann School. The developers haven’t been able to get approval to create their dream community there yet. Would they sell? Who knows. But with that property POWDR may be able to make something really special.
There are some zoning issues, as a recreation facility isn’t allowed there, but with enough lawyers those issues can sometimes be worked out … and we know POWDR has a lot of lawyers.
Right now it’s just wild speculation, but this is one of those crazy things that just makes too much sense.
Parkrag
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