in Economy
The Canaries in the Coal Mine are Telling Us to Take Notice
Hang on. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
This morning two things happened. The first was that Walmart announced it was closing 154 locations in the US (none in Utah, though). The second was that Fastenal, the foremost maker of parts used in construction, missed its earnings estimates.
Anytime Walmart decides to close stores, it tells us something. Either they’ve made a mistake and expanded too rapidly or the consumer isn’t spending (even at the lowest levels). Walmart doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and that’s why this is concerning. In this case, it appears they expanded a little fast with convenience stores but more generally it is signaling a further slowdown in sales across the country.
With Fastenal, their results somewhat aligns with the outlook for remodeling. Their profit was down 5.5% and their sales were down 0.4%. If this happens again next quarter, it will likely signal a real slowdown in fixing up houses.
So, why does any of this matter? Park City and Summit County governments (including the school district) get money from three primary sources: property taxes, sales taxes (including resort taxes), and building/construction related fees. If Walmart is saying that things are so bad that they have to close a number of stores, we should be listening to that. If Fastenal results show that people aren’t remodeling/building like they used to, we should listen to that too.
This means that sales taxes in Summit County could very likely be down in 2016. It also means that revenues from building fees will likely be down in 2016 (construction was already down in Summit County in 2015 but up in Park City). That leaves property taxes as the sole hope for revenues to stay at existing levels. Since statements from real estate agents likely indicate that property values are not increasing dramatically, it’s likely that only through continued building will property tax revenues rise. Perhaps Park City Heights, East Creek Ranch, and Silver Creek Village (residential developments) will continue expansion and thus provide more revenue.
It’s not lost on me that Summit County and Park City are complex entities. Sales taxes come from not only our stores, but our hotels, and resorts. As for property, we likely have enough acres available for building in Summit County, that if built, could fund us for a long time.
That said, it truly feels like a slow down is happening. That slow down will not only affect us individually but on a government level as well.
It should be an interesting 2016. The last few years have shown an uptick in money available to our local governments. It will be interesting to see what decisions are made as that starts to contract. That event may be at our doorstep.
in Election
Please Consider Running For a Local Government Office in 2016
Many of us gripe about things in our community. Perhaps you think the School Board members could have handled the bond election better. Maybe you think all our leaders do is talk about fixing transportation but never do anything. Possibly you don’t like the way the dog issue has been handled. It Could be you believe that staying in the Mountain Accord was a fatal mistake for the county. The list of potential gripes goes on and on.
I’ll be the first to admit, it is much easier to gripe than to actually do something about it. Yet, nothing significant was ever changed by doing very little. So, with that in mind, I IMPLORE YOU TO RUN FOR GOVERNMENT OFFICE in 2016.
Local positions up for election in 2016 are:
- Four (out of five) County Council seats (you can live anywhere in the county)
- Three (out of five) Park City School Board seats (If you live pretty much anywhere south of I-80 and East of Pinebrook in the Park City School District Boundaries your are eligible to run this time)
Unfortunately there are no City Council positions up for grabs this year. While the positions, up for grabs, may not sound as sexy as the Park City City Council, the Park City School Board and County Council are two local bodies that may impact you the most. Most people in our community don’t actually live in the true Park City limits, they live in the Snyderville Basin, which is impacted heavily by County Council decisions. If you have a child in school, then you know how important the School Board is. If you don’t have a child in school, take a look at your property tax statement and you’ll see that 60% of your property taxes goes to our local schools. So yes, the School Board is likely important to you too.
So, what sort of qualifications do you need to have? That’s the great part. You don’t need to be a lawyer, a lifetime politician, or a brain surgeon to serve. Most people would be happy if you just cared deeply about our community, were willing to try hard, and were a good decision maker.
If you were to ask me what I wanted, I would add to that… someone that is willing to make their own decisions and stand against the herd (when necessary). If you are just going to go along with everyone, every time, then why do we need you in office? We might as well just leave the position empty and not pay for it. However if you are willing to make up your own mind, can explain your position, even if it is contrary to others views, we will be all better off in the long run.
Hopefully, some of you are considering the journey. If so, you need to know that deadlines for filing for candidacy are rapidly approaching. County Council filing is available from March 11th to March 17th (5PM). School Board filing is from now through March 17th (5PM). If you even think you might be mildly interested, we’d urge you to start strongly considering it.
One side note is that this is the first year, for the County Council, where your candidacy doesn’t have to be approved by a political party in order to get on the Primary Ballot. You simply need to collect some signatures. This is a big step for freedom in our selection process. No longer can someone be prevented from being on the ballot by a small number of people that run a political party.
The really interesting thing is that a majority of the seats on both the School Board and County Council are up for election. So, this year we could see a dramatic shake up in both groups. Therefore, it’s important that if you feel you have something to offer, that you apply. You could really make a difference.
I believe we are at an inflection point in the Snyderville Basin. With regard to the schools, decisions need to be made about how we both prepare our children for a more competitive global environment and how we facilitate that through our facilities, teachers, and programs. With regard to our county, there are so many issues to be addressed. Vail. East-side development. Mountain Accord. High Paying Jobs. Dogs. Growth. Traffic. I could go on and on.
There are big issues to figure out and we as a community need your voice. So, again, please consider throwing your hat in the ring. Would there be anything better than to have 3 or 4 candidates vying in a primary for every seat? No. Choice and debate is always good.
If anyone has questions about the School Board or County Council and what they do, etc., feel free to email me. Having attended a number of meetings, I am happy to share my opinion on it. If you’d rather get an official opinion on it from people who have actually held the positions, I’m sure either of the current chairpersons of the School Board (Tanya Knauer) and County Council (Kim Carson) would be more than happy to provide you with an overview of what being on the board or council is really like. They are both very nice people and I’m sure they would be happy to share their experiences with you.
So, if you are interested, what do you do? Let’s take the School Board first. For the School Board, you would file with Summit County Clerk’s Office in Coalville. If you have questions about that, you can call the Clerk’s office at 435-336-3203.
For the County Council you have a couple of options. If you want to go through the normal political process, you can contact the Summit County Republican Party by emailing . They will put you in touch with the Summit County Republican Party Chairperson who will help you out. On the Democrat side, you could contact Glenn Wright at and I’m sure he will be able to help you navigate the process, too.
You can also contact the County Clerk’s office directly at 435-336-3203 and they will let you know what needs to be done.
As has been the case for many years, the Park City and Summit County areas are very desirable places to live. I, for one, feel very lucky to live here. To ensure that this continues to be a great place, we need the best leadership possible. We at the Park Rag feel strongly that there are so many people in our community, with so much to offer. We hope you will consider running for School Board or County Council.
Park City Hyatt Escala Suffers Credit Card Breach
Three hundred Hyatt hotels were impacted by malware (malicious computer software) that was capable of collecting credit card names, numbers, expiration dates and verification codes according to Engadget. One of those hotels was the Park City Hyatt Escala Lodge.
If you or your family stayed, dined, used the spa, or bought gifts at the Hyatt Escala between 8/13/2015 and 12/8/2015 you may be impacted. You will want to watch your credit card closely to make sure that your credit card isn’t being used by someone else. This is particularly important since it appears the CVV (verification codes) were compromised too and that makes it even easier to commit fraud on your account.
Here is the press release from Hyatt on the topic.
in Weather
What Will Our Winters Look Like in 2100
One of the things I find interesting is that people will often quote forecasted growth numbers in order to tell us how overcrowded Park City will be by 2060. At the same time they don’t seem to account for forecasted temperature changes. While no one knows for sure what will happen with either, if we are going to rely on one forecast by experts, then we should probably at least look at what experts are saying on the other.
With that in mind, here is what an “official” estimate of temperature looks like for Salt Lake for the year 2100.
Winter
Summer
Park City is usually about 10 degrees cooler than SLC, so it will likely be a little cooler here in both the winter and summer than is forecasted for Salt Lake City. However, I don’t see how a ski industry would survive temperatures in 2100 that average 10 degrees more than now (i.e. could you run a ski resort in the Salt Lake Valley today?). Likewise, our summers would average about 88 degrees.
As mother nature usually eventually does, it looks like given enough time she make take care of our transportation issues herself.
If you’d like to view interactive versions of the map, they can be found here (summer/winter)
“Park City to SLC Connect” Bus Ridership Up 45% in Four Years
The Salt Lake Tribune has a glowing article about the Salt Lake to Park City Connect Bus service. When the service began four years ago, it had ridership of 33,000 people per year. That has grown to over 45,000 people in 2015. This growth is attributed to lowering fares by a $1 ($4.50 now versus $5.50 originally) and modifying the schedule.
I have to admit that I was wrong about the bus. I never thought it would make it to year 2 due to cost and travel time; yet, the service has persisted.
That said, why should you care about a bus running up and down Parley’s? According to the most recent information I could find, Park City and Summit County contribute $475,000 a year to make this bus run (UTA contributes $170,000). Depending on your perspective, that could be money well spent or it could be better used for transportation alternatives in Summit County (i.e. buses into neighborhoods, etc.).
While 45,000 rises sounds like a lot, this accounts to about 13 people per bus. Also keep in mind, that last year, Park City cited that there was often over 10,000 riders PER DAY on its buses. So, in the scheme of things the PC SLC Connect bus isn’t taking too many cars off the road (120+ car a day?). That said, as for emissions, studies show a bus only needs to carry 8 people to be more efficient than individual cars.
I guess the real question is could our community use the $475,000 a year to achieve greater results?
in Economy
Summit County Has Recovered Economically from the Great Recession Better Than Most Counties
The National Association of Counties has published their County Economies 2015 Opportunities and Challenges overview. The report looks at unemployment rates, GDP Expansion, wages, and productivity for each of the 3,069 counties in the United States. Specifically it looks at whether jobs, unemployment, GDP, and Home prices have recovered since the great recession. Only 214 counties improved on all four measures. Summit County recovered to pre-recession levels on three of the four measures (jobs, GDP, and home prices), which puts us in the top 30% of all counties.
It’s also interesting comparing us to surrounding counties. We did better in wage growth but worse in GDP recovery in the past couple of years.
It’s an interesting read if you are in to that sort of thing. You can click on any county in each map and get more information.
Here is an overview from the report:
The Mountain Accord Still Makes Me Shake My Head Sometimes
I’ve heard through the grapevine that the Mountain Accord process appears to be headed in the right direction. I’m still filing that in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” folder. That said, sometimes you have to trust people in the know that say things are getting better with the organization.
Then you get an email from Mountain Accord and it makes you shake your head. Case in point is an email that was delivered yesterday talking about POW Day (Protect our Winters), UTA providing free bus service up Little Cottonwood Canyon, and Mountain Accord donating money to Protect our winters for each bus rider. That was the top of the email. Here is how it ended:
“ Mountain Accord is making critical decisions and implementing solutions to preserve the Central Wasatch Range and ensure its long-term vitality. The future promises more traffic congestion and the continued exclusive reliance on private automobiles to access the Central Wasatch is a grave threat. Transit that serves all populations, in all seasons is a goal of Mountain Accord. Building a sustainable transit network that connects to existing transit on both the Wasatch Front and Back is essential as is reducing the ease of private car use,through carpool incentives, fees, paid parking at resorts and other solutions[/su_highlight].”
First, maybe I’m naive, but I didn’t realize Mountain Accord “is making critical decisions and implementing solutions.” I tend to like the fact that our elected bodies like the city and county council make decisions and work with our local governments to implement those solutions. I don’t really like some Executive Board, made up of hand picked individuals (with a couple representatives from the Park City area), deciding on things and implementing them.
Perhaps the email just suffered from a little too much hubris or perhaps the Mountain Accord Executive Board really views it that way.
I’m guess I’m OK if the decisions they want to implement are of the “giving $1 to a charity for every bus rider” variety. I’ll be much less enthused if they are the ones deciding on how transportation is implemented in Summit County.
Planning on Skiing Alta or Snowbird Tomorrow (1/13)? Ride the Bus for Free.
UTA is offering free bus service up Little Cottonwood Canyon on Wednesday 1/13. In addition, for every person riding the bus or carpool (4 people per car), Mountain Accord will donate $1 to an organization called Protect Our Winters (POW).
If you are headed up you may want to give the bus a try and see what you think.
More details can be found here.
PSA: Give Yourself Plenty of Time in Evanston
If you are one of the hundreds thousands of Utahns headed up to Wyoming to pick some numbers in the hopes of becoming Park City’s first ninth billionaire, give yourself some extra time (or go really early). It is like the Sundance Film Festival hit our poor friends to the north. Reports are there are lines 50-100 people deep to buy tickets.
Just crazy.
That said, if you choose to participate… good luck… but not not TOO MUCH luck. We may be playing too.
Note: this post is not an advertisement or solicitation for participation in any gambling, lottery, game of chance, etc. That would be a class B Misdemeanor in Utah… so like we said above, please don’t play… we’d hate to share our winnings and we think we have great odds of winning at only 293,000,000 to 1.
in Housing
East Creek Ranch Is Better Than Thought
We’ve poked a little fun at East Creek Ranch over the years… from one of their houses in an ad looking like a polygamist compound to questioning the location. This weekend, I had an opportunity to drive around their site that now sports 10-20 homes (in the open area just west of Bells’ gas station).
While I’m not sure I would say the home quality always “looks” like a $700K+ home, I suppose that’s in the eye of the beholder. What I would say is that I’m somewhat shocked by how quiet it was during my visit. I expected the roar of the freeway to make it almost intolerable. That wasn’t the case at all. Perhaps at a different time, noise would increase but there was a steady stream of traffic while I was there and it was a low buzz at worst.
It may be because there is no mountain behind the area to block the sound in and the fact that the houses are a little below the freeway probably helps. Of course, your tastes may vary. So, if you are looking there, please make up your own mind.
All that said, I can envision a time when the area is filled with houses, and families with little kids race between them. Once it’s built out, it very much seems like it could be another area like Silver Summit (Foxcrest Dr, Sagebrook, etc.) where those of us who work here can also live and raise a family. That’s probably not a bad thing.
Parkrag
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