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Another Reason to Start Schools Later… Safety

We were out driving this morning at about 6:30, when we came upon a group of cars waiting to drop their kids off on the bus. As the bus approached from down the hill, all the kids started getting out of the cars and running across the road. This was before the bus had arrived and put out its stop sign.

The issue is that at 6:30 it’s still very dark and it would be very easy for a car to not see a kid. We don’t know that there has ever been an accident, but it’s not hard to envision a child being run over. If that were to happen, there would be a lot of questions about kids hopping on buses at the crack of dawn’s ass in the dark.

There has been a recent push by Dr John Hanrahan to start our school’s later due to better learning. This may be an additional reason supporting a later start that should factor into the discussion.

Has Running With ED’s Website Been Hacked?

This morning we heard a radio promo for Running with ED, so we typed “running with ed” into Google. It brings up the normal google listing but when you click on it, it takes you to a Viagra site (kind of funny when you think about it…except the hacking part of course).

Here is what it all looks like…

runningwithedsearch

 

If you click on the first link… it takes you to:
runnigwithedpharmacy

Oops… Not good. It appears if you type the site www.runningwithed.com directly into the browser it works, though. That’s pretty strange.

Update: First, we don’t know exactly what has happened here. We have done some research into “Pharma Hacks” as they are called and our best guess on this is that someone was able to compromise Running With Ed’s WordPress based website. It appears if security is not handled properly it may be possible to upload something to the website causing the site to send people to other locations — like a Viagra website. The risk here is that if one piece of code was uploaded to their site to do this, other parts of their site may have been compromised, too. It appears they use a third party for registration and collecting money. So, at least that’s a good thing. We would just advise using caution on their site until they either confirm that everything is OK, or if this was a hack that this has been taken care of and they’ve had a security specialist look at all of their “code” to make sure there isn’t something else nasty in there.

We Couldn’t Agree More With This Weekend’s Park Record Edtorial

In Saturday’s Park Record, the Park Record Editorial Staff advocate forcing the Boyer Tech Park to keep it’s original mission: Bringing high paying tech jobs to Park City. It seems the development company behind the 1 million + square feet of allotted space in Kimball Junction want to relax the rules to allow other types of businesses be housed at “The Tech Park.”

If changes are allowed to the original agreement, it goes against what most Basin residents originally thought they were agreeing to when they put support behind diversifying our economy through more advanced jobs (and approving this development).

Would you allow BOSAC (Basin Open Space Advisory Committee) to buy lands with public money under the auspices of making them open space and then allow them to sell the land to a Dollar Store because it was convenient?No. In this case, the development was approved with a lot of density (i.e. a ton of space per square foot) because we the citizens wanted to diversify the community through high paying tech jobs.

We believe the community still wants this. We don’t need more restaurants and stores with minimum wage jobs, we need jobs that allow the middle class to live here and our children to come back. We hope our elected officials still agree with that.

Here is the link to the editorial, in case you haven’t read it.

 

8% of Summit County Mortgages Under Water

A recent report by Zillow indicates 8% of Summit County homes with mortgages are financially under water. Under water means that the home is valued at less than the mortgage amount. This is low compared to the national average of 16.7%. So, from that perspective Summit County is looking good.

That said, if we are depending on people moving here to spur growth, increase our government revenues, and ensure as many people live here as possible, other areas like Davis and Salt Lake counties have higher underwater rates. For instance Davis County, which is one of the locations where the most net immigration to Summit County comes from is at 17%. Salt Lake County is at 20% underwater. If people can’t sell their homes their (because of owing more than the house is worth) then they can’t move here.

So, if you are one of those people who are counting on a big population influx from the valley, you better hope home values start increasing rapidly.

What We Don’t Understand About Park City Municipal’s View on Transportation

Last week, Park City’s transportation lead, Kent Cashel, met with the Park City School District’s Master Planning Committee. He gave a 15 minute talk on transportation. One of his key points was that if the school district decided to move Treasure Mountain off of Kearns it wouldn’t “solve” the transportation problem. He repeated this a few times.

Sitting in the meeting, the take-away was that no matter what the school district did, it wouldn’t impact traffic in Park City. Yet, with grade realignment likely coming our way, there will be 400 more students on Kearns if Treasure Mountain is rebuilt there. While we agree building a school somewhere else won’t SOLVE the traffic problem it would HELP the traffic problem. It’s like the person who is 100 pounds overweight who decides to forgo the first and second helping of dessert. Will that solve their weight issue? No. Will they lose 20 pounds over the next year. Probably.

What Kent Cashel did was give the School District an out. Traffic is likely less of no longer a consideration for the school district. However, if we were to look at problems across Park City what would be Problem #1? Traffic. What would be problem #23? Rebuilding Treasure Mountain.

We had a chance to help solve two issues at once. At a minimum there would be fewer cars on Kearns at certain times of the day. If Park City’s transportation guru had simply said, “moving the school would help… it won’t solve the problem… but it would help” then the district may have had an additional reason to look outside of Kearns for their school.

Instead, it appears Park City was more concerned with keeping a school in Park City. That’s at the expense of every resident and visitor that drives in on Highway 248.

Of course Park City’s solution is for the Utah Department of Transportation to widen the lanes on 248 in 2019. Or perhaps add a bus lane in the next couple of years. Anyone want to bet a steak dinner that their plan will SOLVE Park City’s transportation problems? If so, please let us know… we are hungry.

Either way, be sure to think of your Park City government when you are sitting in traffic heading into town. They not only own the problem, but the decisions they have made will likely make things worse.

Citizen Rails Against PC CAPS Program

In Tuesday’s Park City School Board meeting, a citizen who represents some members of the Park City High School PTO and Community Council spoke very critically about the school’s PC CAPS program. Her main issues were:

  • Seems to be claims by parents and students that haven’t been followed up by the school district
  • Enrollment is flat, yet additional funds are being poured into the program
  • Students were denied withdrawal requests in order to keep the program’s headcount up
  • In the 2015-2016 school year, enrollment in PC CAPS is up slightly but that’s due to the addition of sophomores
  • There are unsubstantiated claims that PC CAPS has helped students get into colleges when their grades and SATs were low. The citizen said they had contacted the program’s director multiple times to get proof of these claims but have never received anything
  • Believes the program’s director has written negative things about traditional education on a personal blog and believes that goes against what our school’s are emphasizing

All in all, it was a pretty scathing attack.

The School Board’s response to this Public Comment (in written form) was:

“Concerns were brought forth regarding budget and enrollment of the PCCAPS program. A request was made for a full review of the program. The superintendent, under her administrative duties, will provide a report to the governing board in an upcoming meeting.”

So, we’ll be watching for that report.

Below is the video. The citizen’s comments start at approximately 1 minute in and last 3 minutes:

 

 

Question: How Do You Know If Our Weather Is Changing?

We were having drinks last night with good friends and the topic of the “future of the Wasatch” came up. We made the comment that growth may be a moot point due to weather. We cited Utah Atmospheric Professor Jim Steenburgh and his opinion that warmer temperatures are on the way, cross country skiing is going to be tough around here, and Park City Mountains will still have snow… but generally at higher elevations.

One of our  friends said, “yeah… but there was weather like this in the 1970’s.” His point was just because there is a lack of snow this year doesn’t mean the future is lost. And just in case you were wondering… our friend isn’t Ted Cruz. He makes a good point, though.

How do we as a community (or individuals) decide whether our climate is really changing. Will it take 5 years of low snow? Will it take 10 years? What if we have 1 good year in 10?  What if there is 6 good years in 10?

Ultimately we’re not sure. However, we do know that it’s perhaps the most important question we should be asking. If there is less snow, our resorts would suffer. It isn’t unimaginable to expect that fewer people would come here. Would a resort close in Park City? Right now that’s hard to imagine… but Deer Valley selling to Vail in 10 years isn’t impossible to contemplate… or perhaps the other way around.

The question is important because it drives almost everything we do. Should we build a train to Park City.? Should we allow the Boyer Tech Park to be a second base to Canyons? How should we plan for growth? If there is less snow how does that impact the second home market (2/3 of homes in Park City and 1/3 of homes in the Basin)?

If Park City becomes purely a Sundance and Summer place for visitors and the rest belongs to locals, the things we focus on would be very different. Instead of focusing on transportation we may focus on dual immersion for our kids. Instead of focusing on limiting growth, we may focus on actual affordable housing. We don’t know exactly how it would be different but we do know the problems we are trying to triage today will be completely different.

It’s just something we were left thinking about today… after a good conversation last night.

How Fast is Summit County Growing? Really Fast? Are You Sure?

There’s a saying, “if you repeat something long enough, soon everyone will believe it.” We are starting to see his point when it comes to population growth in Summit County. It seems like a day doesn’t go by when we here that “Park City’s population will double by 2040” or “Summit County will have 100,000 people by 2030” or “we have to be ahead of the growth” or “we need ____________ because the growth is coming.” Anything someone wants, whether that be Mountain Accord, more transportation funds, or trying to get investors to build another hotel in the Basin it seems founded on those six letters G-R-O-W-T-H.

The thought is so engrained we almost feel stupid for questioning it. That said, we here at the Park Rag aren’t above being stupid.

First, where do those growth calculations come from? Those come from a 2012 report from The Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget. It actually states that by 2040 Summit County (including Park City) is projected to have 71,000 people. Right now there are 38,000 people. So, that would be an increase of 33,000 people. Granted, that’s hefty increase of 86%… If it really happens.

First you have to recognize that the Governor’s Office is a political beast. Good growth must mean that Utah is doing well. If 2 million more people want to come to Utah in the next 30 years, that must mean we are doing something right! Yet, that “enthusiasm” for growth doesn’t necessarily mean it won’t happen… it just means we shouldn’t take their word for it. If we look nationally, Pew Research guesses that between now and 2050, the US population will likely grow by 42%. If we look at Utah between 2010 and 2014 it did grow at twice the national average, so perhaps it’s possible for our state. That said, what about Summit County?

One of the most interesting tools we have found is the US Census Flow Mapper. It shows on a county by county level the net migration and where people are coming from and going to. Summit County’s migration looks like this:

migrationflows

This map shows us that in an average year a net 261 people leave Summit County for Salt Lake. People also leave for Cache, Weber, Tooele, and Wasatch Counties. The most people come from Orange County California (282 people per year) with some coming from Davis and Washington Counties. Here is the spreadsheet of datap.

According to the Census Bureau, on average there is a net migration out of Summit County of 429 people per year (during the period they looked at).

The other part of the calculation to determine growth is births and deaths. In 2013, Summit County had 418 births and 146 deaths. That’s a net growth of 272. That still leaves Summit County with a net decreasing population. If we factor in foreign additions and a few other factors we may achieve a little growth.

To be fair, the Census data is from 2008-2012 during a recession and Utah grows more in good economic times. There are also more births during good economic times (for instance there were 595 births in Summit County in 2007). Yet, to turn around low growth to a growth of 3.3% a year is going to be a challenge.

We aren’t trying to be a “popper” here (i.e. someone who denies population growth). However, because so many decisions are based on it, it’s important to keep our eye on it. If their forecasts are right we should grow by about 1,270 (3.3%) people a year, every year. In the roaring years (2000-2010) it appears we grew at about 2.4% per year. Right now, we aren’t even achieving that. Of course, if the California drought continues, all bets could be off, in some sort of reversal of the Grapes of Wrath.

If we are going to make good decisions, we need to constantly monitor the underlying data and adjust our conclusions. We hope our local officials are doing that before they make any huge decisions.

If the County and City Ban Plastic Bags, They Should Ban Paper Bags Too

This morning, Recycle Utah’s Insa Riepen was on KPCW talking about recycling. She mentioned that the Town of Vail (in Colorado) has banned all single use plastic bags and is continuing her push for our area to do the same. This was proposed a few years ago and promptly died over concerns of how it may impact tourists. Proponents of the bag ban cite the negative impacts of bags on our landfills and the impact they have on recycling machines when put in curbside recycling (hint: never put a plastic bag in curbside recycling). We’d always thought in a perfect world, we’d all have 10 reusable bags we’d bring to the grocery store. However, in the real-world, we realized it was likely a shift from plastic bags to paper bags.

We were surprised to find out that paper bags aren’t much better than plastic when it comes to global warming. You must reuse a paper bag 3 times before it has less impact than a single use bag on global warming. The non-woven polypropylene reusable bags sold at Whole Foods must be used 11 times and a standard cotton tote has to be 131 times to have less global warming impact.

Thee are of course landfill benefits to killing the plastic bag, but it does tell us that if Summit County and Park City ban plastic bags they also need to ban paper bags too. This would force people into using reusable bags, so they are used enough times to break-even environmentally. Even with that, there is still the issue of visitors. If visitors come to Park City, buy 3 reusable Whole Foods bags, and throw them away on their way out of town, we are in worse shape yet.

It’s a tough topic to crack and may be one without a good solution. We admire Ms Riepen’s passion and persistence but in this case there may be better fish to fry.